Obama: too powerful?

President Barack Hussein Obama. The name could not be more un-American, especially that middle name with its Arabic/ Persian origin. His last name rhymes with George Bush’s number one enemy, something that Fox TV viewers will be well aware of. Oh, he’s also black.

The election of Mr Obama to the office of the most powerful human being on earth has not only given black people all over the world hope for the future, but it has quickly elevated his country’s status as the most progressive in the world. For the past few years now the US has been seen as a hi-tech cave built for only those inside, cold and unwelcoming to those seeking the mythical “American Dream”. Its standing as a respected leader had dwindled to such an extent that world powers were beginning to look at Europe and Asia for leadership. So when Mr Obama spoke of a long road to change during his victory speech, I had already seen so much change because of that win.

Last time the world stood this still, watched in awe, cried real tears, laughed and spoke one language was when Dr Nelson Mandela became Mzansi’s first president. No disrespect but the others before him were not democratically elected, and can therefore never lay claim to that title. Sorry. People in Japan were singing “Yes we can!”, monks in Tibet watched in disbelief on television, teenagers in São Paulo danced on the streets in jubilation, middle-class Mzansi held celebratory parties in Umhlanga. My mailbox got so much Obama-related mail that the system mistook it for spam and killed most of it.

Much has been said about how Mr Obama conducted his campaign of almost two years, how he started off as a no-hoper, taking on that powerful Senator Mrs Hillary Clinton (with her husband Bill), eventually winning that battle after long deep scars had been cut through their party. Few thought the Democrats would survive that fierce internal fist-fight, let alone that Mr Obama would take it. A senator from Illinois. Black even. At the time I had wondered out loud to a friend about whether America was ready to accept a woman President or a black one. Tuesday the 4th of November 2008 answered that quite clearly.

Mr Obama is set to be the most powerful US President ever elected. He will preside over a government ruled by his party and a Senate smitten with him. Moreover, he will run a world that totally adores him, has exceptionally high expectations of his Presidency. Come to think of it, this could be worrisome. A figure of this nature would be dangerous not because he would do bad things, but because he could do anything he wanted and people would back him 100% no questions asked. I worry about that aspect.

On the other hand he will need all the help he can get in order to sort out the problems his country is facing, and as a consequence, the world is facing. Issues of “terrorism”, racial tensions, global hunger, global warming, diplomatic timebombs (Iran, North Korea) and Africa. Heavy burdens for anyone, worst for someone who’s going to be judged by the colour of his skin. But this is where the real test of character comes in, where his true mettle shines through. He can’t please everyone all the time, so it will be interesting to see who he pleases first and who he pleases the most.

SHIKOTA - WHAT'S YOUR OFFER?

I’m confused. I’m really confused. This week there was a debate on 702 Talk Radio where the ANC, ID, DA, ACDP, UDM, FF-Plus and Shikota were invited. Shikota of course is the name now unofficially given by the media to the movement/ party/ understanding that Mr Patrick Lekota and Mr Mbhazima Shilowa are involved in forming.

My confusion came from the other parties which at every turn, instead of selling themselves as potential voters’ homes, lambasted the ruling party. While I fully understand the whole rival-bashing thing to score political points, these organisations left me with so many questions on their own policies and plans, that I felt they wasted an entire two hours of airtime. Aren’t elections all about what you can do for me as a party, what your policies are, how you’ll improve my life as a voter? As a small party you should be using each and every available opportunity to inform voters about how you would make their lives easier, your programmes of action and so on. I can’t (under)stand parties that constantly attack with no grounds to stand on without offering viable alternatives.

When it came to Mr Patrick Lekota my feeling was, the man still has deep-seated issues with his former party the ANC. Throughout the discussion he kept referring to ANC history and anecdotes as if he was campaigning for the party. But what really got my ears in a perk was when he said the ANC had been led by educated intellectuals throughout its history and promptly went on to name a few. The killer shot though was when he said the ANC had been led by intellectuals, people with [education] degrees, all the way up until Mr Thabo Mbeki. You see where this is going right? Was that reason enough to leave the ANC?

Now, by extension, would Mr Lekota object if he himself was not elected as leader of this new movement, and instead Mr Shilowa, with only his Matric certificate in the cupboard, got the nod? The National Convention as it has been dubbed, is going on today. When Mr Lekota first touted the idea of a convention in public, he mentioned that a possible political party could be formed, that it obviously had no name, but the delegates at the convention would give it a name. So it appears the movement will be a highly democratic one where the people make the rules, and the people make decisions, instead of one committee or “cabal”.

Speaking of cabal, Mr Lekota and Mrs Jesse Duarte who was representing the ANC, had a heated exchange where Mr Lekota accused the ANC of pandering to what COSATU and the SACP’s demands.

“You’re [Mr Lekota] not there, you can’t be making decisions for us…you were the cabal before, Terror. You were telling us what to do. And we all had to jump up when you and the cabal told us what to do, and silence ourselves. That’s over now…” - Duarte

Mr Lekota had made the example that he and other bourgeois who own capital had been flooded out of the ANC leadership structures by the alliance members at Polokwane 2007 because the new ANC leadership does not want intellectuals and businesspeople in its ranks anymore. Confusing to me is that a number of prominent, millionaire businesspeople lead the ANC, including Mathew Phosa, Tokyo Sexwale, Max Sisulu and Cyril Ramaphosa. We know the third richest Mzansizen Mr Patrice Motsepe is a big supporter of the ANC, whether he is a member of the party or not I’m not sure. Intellectuals? Broad definition, but a few spring to mind; Pallo Jordan, Joel Netshitenzhe, Naledi Pandor, Valli Moosa… Was that reason enough to leave the ANC?

Anyway, the point of this letter is that it seems to me Mr Lekota has left out a few gaping holes in his strategy going forward, and for that one reason a good showing at the Polls 2009 cannot be guaranteed. Unless. Unless? Yes, unless he gets Mr Thabo Mbeki to join him…

EX MINISTERS TO FORM A NEW PARTY?

Late last year I had a conversation with a friend. He is one of the directors in government. He was saying that he expects to see a number of cabinet Ministers not returning to their posts after Election 2009. Apparently most of them were not happy with the direction things were taking, leading up to the ANC’s conference in Polokwane. I pictured in my head people like Mr Mosiuoa Lekota, Dr Mantombazane Tshabalala-Msimang and Dr Nkosazana Zuma being on that list. Of course Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka and Dr Essop Pahad as well. What has happened over the weekend is that nine of these folks, and two Deputies tendered in their resignations. There were attempts to talk them out of their actions by Mr Thabo Mbeki and Mr Jacob Zuma, but these were in vain. Interestingly at the press conference where ANC Secretary General Mr Gwede Mantashe made this announcement, to his left was Minister of Transport Mr Jeff Radebe, to his right was former SANDF Chief General Siphiwe Nyanda, next to him Dr Mathole Motshekga the former Premier of Gauteng who took over from Mr Tokyo Sexwale, and to his far right was Mr Billy Masetla, the guy fired from his post as Director General at the Intelligence Ministry. So it seems you get “comrades” and then you get COMRADES…

The only major concern as far as this announcement was the Minister of Finance Mr Trevor Manuel, and that concern was only from people familiar with how the financial markets work. Mr Manuel has been a strong pillar of state and his department is credited with doing sterling work as far financial governance is concerned. The irony of these fears about Mr Manuel leaving cabinet is that when he joined Dr Mandela’s cabinet after Chris Liebenberg, the markets went jittery. Numbers declined and whispers were heard around dark corners about this black activist boy from the Cape with only an engineering degree driving our economy down the drain. Twelve years later the same markets are jittery after hearing of his resignation. Back then Mr Manuel himself had asked “where are these markets”? Markets, contrary to popular belief, are not by any means perfect, and neither are they efficient. Often they make decisions based on incomplete information. For example, the markets fell today on news that Mr Manuel had resigned, when in fact, all these Ministers him included, had resigned last Saturday. That is why Mr Jacob Zuma and Mr Thabo Mbeki had met with them to try and dissuade them from acting out these mass resignations on Sunday.

A few “analysts” today attacked the ANC for being caught napping by these Ministers, saying the ANC was totally unprepared for them. Clearly not. And the markets reacted accordingly. Now there are growing voices claiming a new party is on the way, led by some of these Ministers. I’m afraid they are wasting not only their own time but that of their future voters. You see, starting a party is a simple enough task. You just need money. The Independent Democrats (ID) leader Mrs Patricia

de Lille (why are there so many pictures and stories of her on the ID’s website, instead of ID stuff? Five pictures of her on the home page alone!) left the Pan Africanist Congress.

The UDM’s Mr Bantu Holomisa did it too with the ANC, after joining them from running his former Bantustan, the Transkei. So did Dr Ziba Jiyane from the Inkatha Freedom Party. In fact, Dr Mangosuthu Buthelezi started the Inkatha National Cultural Liberation Movement (which later became the IFP) when he left the ANC Youth League in 1975. Most of our opposition parties have been started by former “dissidents” of other major parties.

The differences here may be that these said folks already had constituencies. They had support on the ground, obviously not enough to topple the ANC…yet, but still enough to get them into Parliament. Mr Zuma clearly has groundswell support. In fact I would venture to say he probably has more support than any other leader in the history of Mzansi, apart from the obvious one. To start a political party, a successful one, you need that kind of backing, from the people on the ground, the branches and other structures. You don’t just announce on TV that you are forming a party and then boom, you win an election. Can we honestly say that any of the Ministers that have resigned from cabinet have this kind of support?

Most of the Ministers have said they are not interested in staying on, even if asked to by the new President Mr Kgalema Motlanthe.

These are the departing Ministers.

Mr Mosiuoa Lekota (Defence)

Sydney Mufumadi (Provincial and Local Government)

Alec Irwin (Public Enterprises)

Thoko Didiza (Public Works)

Ronnie Kasrils (Intelligence)

Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi (Public Service and Administration)

Mosibudi Mangena (Science and Technology)

Ngconde Balfour (Correctional Services)

Essop Pahad (Minister in the Presidency)

Aziz Pahad (Deputy, Foreign Affairs Minister)

Loretta Jacobus (Deputy, Correctional Services)

ANC HEADED BACK TO THE PEOPLE?

There’s a large municipality I have been chasing for business for the past four months. In fact, I have been trying to set up a meeting, a measly introductory meeting, with one of the executive directors there. A whole four months, and each time I contact this person’s PA I’m told the person is busy, or their schedule is full or some other excuse. Finally I contact the said city’s executive mayor. The mayor returns my call and promises to get the ball rolling.

Then this afternoon a live press conference is broadcast, and much of the country’s media are invited. It’s the ANC executive. Mr Jacob Zuma is present, so is his deputy Mr Kgalema Motlante They are addressing us on President Thabo Mbeki’s forced resignation – yeah we all know he didn’t jump, he was gently escorted out of the Union Building. The ANC’s president Mr Jacob Zuma makes a speech from written notes after the intros have been done, and basically praises Mr Mbeki’s contribution to the struggle as well as his work in government. He explains what happened with the resignation and some of the way forward. The media is then allowed to field questions from the floor in an orderly fashion, the process being overseen by ANC spokesperson Mrs Jessie Duarte. A similar occurrence in Polokwane last December; major event, the ANC briefs the media afterwards, with no question left unanswered, whether we liked the answers or not. Same thing during the court proceedings of Mr Zuma. Julius Malema wants to speak about killing and dying for Mr Zuma. Speak Malema! Vavi wants to second him. Go ahead Mr Vavi.

I started seeing a pattern here, a pattern of new openness, some might even say confidence, from the new ANC NEC. There’s no longer that fear of the media, although some mistrust still lingers. The ANC has realised that the media are either your friend or foe, and they can do serious damage or great PR for you, if you treat them a certain way. Mr Zuma himself answered most of the questions posed, which were mostly centered around his legal troubles anyway. But still. This is not an ANC we are used to. It’s not an ANC that only does interviews with the SABC for instance, and even then, only certain journalists.

Now I’m really beginning to wonder if the ANC is on its way back to the people. Wouldn’t that be something? A friend of mine, one of the harshest critics of the new ANC NEC said we are a sinking ship in waiting, that “it’s the first time the communists are running the ANC” and lord have mercy on us all. I had a good laugh thereafter, recalling people like Joe Slovo, Jeff Radebe, Jay Naidoo, Chris Hani, Govan Mbeki and Cyril Ramaphosa. These and many others were communists and trade unionists, yet when they were in prominent leadership positions my friend was nowhere to be heard. I replied that perhaps these developments are not such a bad thing. I said to him regardless of economic growth, more of our people are poor today than ever before. They are crying out for help, they want water, housing, jobs, education. They want to be in the mainstream of the economy which is still locking its doors on them. When Mr Jacob Zuma was elected in Polokwane these people were overjoyed. Suddenly the prospect of a better life was more real than ever, jubilation all around, renewed hope in their eye, brighter futures dreamt again. How can this be a bad thing? Are the so-called clever people who backed Mr Mbeki the main concern for the ANC, or are the masses?

The current cabinet is overrun by intellectuals, Drs of all sorts. Dr Mandela’s cabinet was similar, yet since 1994 we have not managed to create close to enough jobs for our people. We have not dealt with the sickening levels of poverty that you see when you land at Cape Town International Airport, when you drive into Umlazi, walk in Taung town or look around Cyril Ramaphosa squatter camp. Do these people care that inflation is at 5% or 10%? Do they wonder if Zapiro is mocking Mr Zuma in his cartoons? Do debates centering on two centers of power and the effect of the Left in our government concern them in any way?

GUNS OR EDUCATION...GUNS OR AIDS...GUNS OR FOOD...

Many have said that were it not for the notorious arms deal, President Mbeki would still be in power, with possibly Mr Jacob Zuma beside him. Two old struggle friends, side by side, walking towards another landslide victory at Election 2009. But the leaders of the ANC had other plans. The arms deal, contrary to what you may have read or heard elsewhere, did not come as a result of greedy politicians trying to line their own pockets. That was just a byproduct. It came about as a result of ignorance and paranoia.

Back in the dark old days of evil apartheid, the state stayed in power not because the majority wanted it to. It stayed at the shaky top because it was able to put the fear of hell into people by using its available resources, that is the police force and the army. In other words, it used extensive, often deadly force to keep “the masses” in line. It was these forces that prompted the armed struggle, resulting in the formation of Umkhonto WeSizwe and later APLA and others. We are off to the bush, to Cuba, to the USSR (Russia) then, to learn army skills, guerilla tactics, survival instincts. After decades of this sort of conditioning, being told and taught that AK-47s are the only way to ascend into power, what else could be expected in 1990? And umshini wakhe…

If you remember when the violence that gripped our country so tightly in the early 1990s, you’ll recall it started in mid-1990. Dr Mandela had been out and about for a few months, people were excited about the future. Some more than others I’m sure. The ANC had in its collective mind that in order for order to prevail, they would have to get into power as quickly as possible and then seize these two armed forces as soon as possible. Moreover, the army was staffed and armed by old guns, bombs, land mines (Mozambique anyone?), pistols and the rest. The white people were not going to catch them unawares, and unarmed this time around. No ways. It was the most opportune time to acquire these weapons so as to consolidate the new government’s power, to solidify its position against the old enemy.

The old what? Wait a minute now, are we not a new, united country, all rainbow and all? Yes we are. But. But, but, but. That’s the story of Mzansi. So how about it? Shall we buy some weapons and beef up the squadrons? You know, in case we get attacked by Lesotho or Botswana or Zimbabwe or renegade white people…are you serious?!? The biggest “enemies” we were approaching were AIDS, unemployment, crime and lack of education. Anyone who has read any book relating to revolutionaries will know that after a revolutionary there is looting. After the looting, crime levels rise, the middle class whines, the upper class clamps up and either leaves the country or gets far wealthier than they were before the revolution (think of the bankers who fund BEE deals and the white “partners” who benefit from it). How the ANC’s think tanks did not see all this still amazes me.

The arms then, were meant to strengthen the new government. But what the new rulers did not count on was how financially vast this thing was, how involving it would be, and what sort of expertise it would require. Although MK soldiers were trained in ways of combat, they were not up to date with what was going on in the world of arms, and were therefore not mentally equipped to deal with the requirements of a new army. When it came to procuring, the experts, which were mostly the old apartheid generals, were executively excluded from participating. Worse, anyone with eyes to see could conceivably see himself/herself benefiting from the amounts to be spent. After all, the wealth of the country should be shared right? It cannot remain with the few rich white people. And so anybody with even a touch of a finger on the deal was interested in how he/ she could reap its financial rewards. Indeed, what are a few missing hundred thousand, or even a couple of millions and some “gifts”, compared to R46 billion? It’s nothing. It’s like a stolen cell phone in a squatter camp. Arms deals are the most corruption-prone deals any government can enter into. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Tanzania, the US, France, Iraq and Britain all currently have or have had at least one major scandal involving the procurement of national defence weapons.

This now was effectively the beginning of what has become Mzansi’s most scandalous operation since the dawn of our freedom. The deal has negatively implicated a long list of senior politicians, including Mr Mbeki, the late Minister of Defence Joe Modise, ANC President Jacob Zuma and convicted ANC NEC member Tony Yengeni. Over the weekend the fallout from this arms deal claimed its most senior victim that any can claim; the CEO of the country.

MBEKI FALLS

I can just see it now. His office at the Union Buildings, cleaning out his desk with Essop Pahad behind him, each piece of furniture, memento piece, a story behind it. “Eish boss, you can’t leave this one. It was a present from Bob from up north…”. “Pahad, I can’t keep it anymore,” he might say, ”If Morgan institutes a commission of inquiry into my mediation efforts and finds that I colluded with bra Bob, I could really get into trouble. Anything that connects me with him in that fashion we leave behind for Jake. Maybe it can be used against him instead…”

And so it goes, a pair of socks here, a mug there, a painting perhaps, a case or five of Imoya 20 year-old brandy there…people often leave their jobs don’t they? Whether by desire or otherwise, people don’t always stay in the same jobs like in the old days where you got a fake gold watch after 50 years of loyal service at the assembly line. Therefore President Mbeki’s departure from government structures cannot be a train smash. Well, not on its own anyway.

A number of cabinet ministers have apparently expressed their loyalty to the chief by stating they will leave as soon as he leaves. They were appointed by him after all. I don’t know if that is a valid reason; often in my working life I had “survived” a few people who had appointed me to a certain position. These sorts of acts would either be blind loyalty or open defiance. Moreover, will things fall apart if many of these folks do step out of their ministerial offices? Actually the Deputy President Mrs Mlambo-Ngcuka has said that she will indeed resign if and when Mr Mbeki does, so we can officially count “one down”.

The one man the so-called markets are worried about is Trevor Manuel. Will he go or will he stay? He has been asked to stay, but after his heated public exchange with Mo Shaik, one wonders if he will, notwithstanding his office saying that he’s not going anywhere. Six months in Mzansi is like a minute in space; things can happen pretty quickly. That a respected member of cabinet, exchanging words like that with one of the notorious Shaik brothers puts his own objectivity in question.

Here’s a real question though? Who will take over the Presidency? Officially a member of cabinet would in the absence of both President and his Deputy. However we don’t know who is staying and who is going at this point. Besides, the ANC has indicated that it would appoint someone itself to head up the Union Buildings. President Motlante maybe? And what is that particular man’s agenda anyway? Which brings me to my late suggestion. Since the President was on his last term anyway and would be gone in 6 months time, why remove him now? What is the major haste? If they had instead of forcing him to leave, forced him to reinstate their man Mr Jacob Zuma at his post of DP and let Mrs Mlambo-Ngcuka take the fall, the blow would not have been so severe as it promises to be in the next few weeks and months. We would have gotten used to JZ in power by Election 2009 and would know Mbeki was leaving anyway.

Relieving Mr Mbeki of his duties at such a point will no doubt bring in masses of votes from the millions who back JZ, but what can it do to the confidence of outsiders in our ruling party and by extension, our country? Let's not forget, he still has a large following too.