GUNS OR EDUCATION...GUNS OR AIDS...GUNS OR FOOD...

Many have said that were it not for the notorious arms deal, President Mbeki would still be in power, with possibly Mr Jacob Zuma beside him. Two old struggle friends, side by side, walking towards another landslide victory at Election 2009. But the leaders of the ANC had other plans. The arms deal, contrary to what you may have read or heard elsewhere, did not come as a result of greedy politicians trying to line their own pockets. That was just a byproduct. It came about as a result of ignorance and paranoia.

Back in the dark old days of evil apartheid, the state stayed in power not because the majority wanted it to. It stayed at the shaky top because it was able to put the fear of hell into people by using its available resources, that is the police force and the army. In other words, it used extensive, often deadly force to keep “the masses” in line. It was these forces that prompted the armed struggle, resulting in the formation of Umkhonto WeSizwe and later APLA and others. We are off to the bush, to Cuba, to the USSR (Russia) then, to learn army skills, guerilla tactics, survival instincts. After decades of this sort of conditioning, being told and taught that AK-47s are the only way to ascend into power, what else could be expected in 1990? And umshini wakhe…

If you remember when the violence that gripped our country so tightly in the early 1990s, you’ll recall it started in mid-1990. Dr Mandela had been out and about for a few months, people were excited about the future. Some more than others I’m sure. The ANC had in its collective mind that in order for order to prevail, they would have to get into power as quickly as possible and then seize these two armed forces as soon as possible. Moreover, the army was staffed and armed by old guns, bombs, land mines (Mozambique anyone?), pistols and the rest. The white people were not going to catch them unawares, and unarmed this time around. No ways. It was the most opportune time to acquire these weapons so as to consolidate the new government’s power, to solidify its position against the old enemy.

The old what? Wait a minute now, are we not a new, united country, all rainbow and all? Yes we are. But. But, but, but. That’s the story of Mzansi. So how about it? Shall we buy some weapons and beef up the squadrons? You know, in case we get attacked by Lesotho or Botswana or Zimbabwe or renegade white people…are you serious?!? The biggest “enemies” we were approaching were AIDS, unemployment, crime and lack of education. Anyone who has read any book relating to revolutionaries will know that after a revolutionary there is looting. After the looting, crime levels rise, the middle class whines, the upper class clamps up and either leaves the country or gets far wealthier than they were before the revolution (think of the bankers who fund BEE deals and the white “partners” who benefit from it). How the ANC’s think tanks did not see all this still amazes me.

The arms then, were meant to strengthen the new government. But what the new rulers did not count on was how financially vast this thing was, how involving it would be, and what sort of expertise it would require. Although MK soldiers were trained in ways of combat, they were not up to date with what was going on in the world of arms, and were therefore not mentally equipped to deal with the requirements of a new army. When it came to procuring, the experts, which were mostly the old apartheid generals, were executively excluded from participating. Worse, anyone with eyes to see could conceivably see himself/herself benefiting from the amounts to be spent. After all, the wealth of the country should be shared right? It cannot remain with the few rich white people. And so anybody with even a touch of a finger on the deal was interested in how he/ she could reap its financial rewards. Indeed, what are a few missing hundred thousand, or even a couple of millions and some “gifts”, compared to R46 billion? It’s nothing. It’s like a stolen cell phone in a squatter camp. Arms deals are the most corruption-prone deals any government can enter into. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Tanzania, the US, France, Iraq and Britain all currently have or have had at least one major scandal involving the procurement of national defence weapons.

This now was effectively the beginning of what has become Mzansi’s most scandalous operation since the dawn of our freedom. The deal has negatively implicated a long list of senior politicians, including Mr Mbeki, the late Minister of Defence Joe Modise, ANC President Jacob Zuma and convicted ANC NEC member Tony Yengeni. Over the weekend the fallout from this arms deal claimed its most senior victim that any can claim; the CEO of the country.

MBEKI FALLS

I can just see it now. His office at the Union Buildings, cleaning out his desk with Essop Pahad behind him, each piece of furniture, memento piece, a story behind it. “Eish boss, you can’t leave this one. It was a present from Bob from up north…”. “Pahad, I can’t keep it anymore,” he might say, ”If Morgan institutes a commission of inquiry into my mediation efforts and finds that I colluded with bra Bob, I could really get into trouble. Anything that connects me with him in that fashion we leave behind for Jake. Maybe it can be used against him instead…”

And so it goes, a pair of socks here, a mug there, a painting perhaps, a case or five of Imoya 20 year-old brandy there…people often leave their jobs don’t they? Whether by desire or otherwise, people don’t always stay in the same jobs like in the old days where you got a fake gold watch after 50 years of loyal service at the assembly line. Therefore President Mbeki’s departure from government structures cannot be a train smash. Well, not on its own anyway.

A number of cabinet ministers have apparently expressed their loyalty to the chief by stating they will leave as soon as he leaves. They were appointed by him after all. I don’t know if that is a valid reason; often in my working life I had “survived” a few people who had appointed me to a certain position. These sorts of acts would either be blind loyalty or open defiance. Moreover, will things fall apart if many of these folks do step out of their ministerial offices? Actually the Deputy President Mrs Mlambo-Ngcuka has said that she will indeed resign if and when Mr Mbeki does, so we can officially count “one down”.

The one man the so-called markets are worried about is Trevor Manuel. Will he go or will he stay? He has been asked to stay, but after his heated public exchange with Mo Shaik, one wonders if he will, notwithstanding his office saying that he’s not going anywhere. Six months in Mzansi is like a minute in space; things can happen pretty quickly. That a respected member of cabinet, exchanging words like that with one of the notorious Shaik brothers puts his own objectivity in question.

Here’s a real question though? Who will take over the Presidency? Officially a member of cabinet would in the absence of both President and his Deputy. However we don’t know who is staying and who is going at this point. Besides, the ANC has indicated that it would appoint someone itself to head up the Union Buildings. President Motlante maybe? And what is that particular man’s agenda anyway? Which brings me to my late suggestion. Since the President was on his last term anyway and would be gone in 6 months time, why remove him now? What is the major haste? If they had instead of forcing him to leave, forced him to reinstate their man Mr Jacob Zuma at his post of DP and let Mrs Mlambo-Ngcuka take the fall, the blow would not have been so severe as it promises to be in the next few weeks and months. We would have gotten used to JZ in power by Election 2009 and would know Mbeki was leaving anyway.

Relieving Mr Mbeki of his duties at such a point will no doubt bring in masses of votes from the millions who back JZ, but what can it do to the confidence of outsiders in our ruling party and by extension, our country? Let's not forget, he still has a large following too.

FACEBOOK GETS MAJOR RADIO AIRPLAY

Recently I got into a slight argument with a radio producer from a major national radio station. I shot off on this guy something like “why do you guys and other radio stations promote Facebook so much instead of your own websites”. I pretty much said what I wanted to say in that sentence. Said producer wasn’t impressed with my tone, shot back something like “why are you so foolish as to say that I promote Facebook when I’ve only ever mentioned twice on my show”. Well, I tried to explain to this guy that as I said, it wasn’t him personally I was referring to, it was his DJs and his radio station as a whole. And other radio stations’ DJs and on-air presenters. Day in and out when I tune in I hear words like “we had such a great time at that do last night, if you log on to Facebook you can check out our pictures there. We’ll post them up as soon as the show is over”. Saying this to what are usually millions of listeners.

Most radio stations in Mzansi have their own websites, virtual homes where information like DJ profiles and schedules are posted. Other stuff like who runs the station, how they can be contacted and so on is also found on these sites. Such stations include metrofm.co.za, 702.co.za, yworld.co.za and gagasi995.co.za. Where individual DJs/ presenters have their own space, a biography of the said personality may appear next to their picture. Isn’t this sort of where these pictures of last night’s bash should be posted then? The point of a website is not just to promote the station but to promote the personalities involved. And if fans of the station can be entertained daily by logging into this website, its listenership could grow, thereby growing its advertising revenues. This is why radio stations are in business. You know Facebook is the 7th busiest website in the world? There’s over 100 million users on Facebook and growing at a rapid rate. The top five Facebook users come from the US, UK, Canada, Turkey and Mzansi. In that order. The site doesn’t need any more marketing, especially at the expense of Mzansi-based websites.

And no, I’m not anti-Facebook, although I’m not on it and never will be. It could have been any other website, it could have been Youtube or MySpace. Point is, these guys could certainly spend those marketing budgets much better by beefing up and promoting their own sites, instead of actively promoting other people’s on air. If there’s a feature you like about Facebook then “borrow” that features and use it on your website. Don’t send people off to another place when they could be spending time at yours.

JZ CASE: IS IT FINALLY OVER?

Big day today. Friday the 12th, luckily not the 13th. We learnt late last night that a deal between the fighting factions of Zimbabwe had been reached, that President Robert Mugabe would remain in his seat and that Morgan Tsvangirai would assume the role of Prime Minister, which was abolished by Mugabe in the 1980s after he took power. Some reports have even suggested that Tsvangirai in his position would take control of the police force, while Mugabe retains his reign over the army. No official document to support any of these claims has been released as yet, but we wait.

A few things have come out of this Zim situation and subsequent talks. Firstly, President Thabo Mbeki’s role as mediator may finally be vindicated after long months of criticism from all sides, involved or not. He was accused (and rightly so) of neglecting his domestic duties to concentrate on helping Africa, especially Zimbabwe, regain its footing. He was seen more as an inter-continental dealer than a homeboy. Charity does begin at home Mr President, always. Now, will Mbeki be the knight in the shiny suit or will people “playa hate” and say things like “but it was his job to mediate. He did it and that’s that”? Will he regain some of the credibility he had lost in the years of Jacob Zuma’s legal woes, for which he was solely blamed by the JZ brigade? The man has done a very good job of this Zim process I’d say, and if he is not remembered for anything else when leaves office in 2009 then he must be remembered for this particular achievement.

The second important thing that happened today of course is the escape from prosecution of JZ himself, at least for now. Today Judge Chris Nicholson handed down judgment that claims of a political conspiracy against JZ may not be as far-fetched as many believe. He ended up saying the NPA’s decision to prosecute the man were invalid. NPA of course can still come back and recharge JZ, a third time. But should they choose this route the conspiracy theory will just balloon into a universe of theories. And get people even more mad than they already are. You thought you heard too much of “kill for Zuma”, “lay my life down for Zuma”? This will be new. Completely new. The likes of Zapiro are just fanning the flames and personally I just don’t need that kind of drama in my life.

In a strange sort of way most people wanted to see this trial go ahead, not only because they had/ have doubts about JZ’s innocence but also because they are interested in the outcome. That he may not be tried again means these opportunities are now lost in space, maybe for good. But it also means that no matter the outcome of a case against JZ, guilty or not, opinions about him have already been made thanks to our robust media, and confirmed by the entire country. I think this is what his allies mean by an unfair trial, that we all have some sort of opinion on his guilt/ innocence already, and that even a judge handling his case would not be immune to these opinions. Would I be happy with a JZ presidency? I don’t know. I would answer that question in April 2011, two years into his administration, when I could properly assess on whether he has provided for enough hungry children, whether our employment rate has increased, the rate of HIV infection, if we are producing enough of really smart kids from ALL schools across the country, the number of pensioners who will be queuing up every month for their money. I’ll judge JZ by how he treats the media, the very poor, how he interacts with issues of BBBEE. They say we can recognise the devil as he walks up towards us. Unfortunately I am not that perceptive a judge of human character and I can only see the devil only months after we’ve moved in together.