MBEKI FALLS

I can just see it now. His office at the Union Buildings, cleaning out his desk with Essop Pahad behind him, each piece of furniture, memento piece, a story behind it. “Eish boss, you can’t leave this one. It was a present from Bob from up north…”. “Pahad, I can’t keep it anymore,” he might say, ”If Morgan institutes a commission of inquiry into my mediation efforts and finds that I colluded with bra Bob, I could really get into trouble. Anything that connects me with him in that fashion we leave behind for Jake. Maybe it can be used against him instead…”

And so it goes, a pair of socks here, a mug there, a painting perhaps, a case or five of Imoya 20 year-old brandy there…people often leave their jobs don’t they? Whether by desire or otherwise, people don’t always stay in the same jobs like in the old days where you got a fake gold watch after 50 years of loyal service at the assembly line. Therefore President Mbeki’s departure from government structures cannot be a train smash. Well, not on its own anyway.

A number of cabinet ministers have apparently expressed their loyalty to the chief by stating they will leave as soon as he leaves. They were appointed by him after all. I don’t know if that is a valid reason; often in my working life I had “survived” a few people who had appointed me to a certain position. These sorts of acts would either be blind loyalty or open defiance. Moreover, will things fall apart if many of these folks do step out of their ministerial offices? Actually the Deputy President Mrs Mlambo-Ngcuka has said that she will indeed resign if and when Mr Mbeki does, so we can officially count “one down”.

The one man the so-called markets are worried about is Trevor Manuel. Will he go or will he stay? He has been asked to stay, but after his heated public exchange with Mo Shaik, one wonders if he will, notwithstanding his office saying that he’s not going anywhere. Six months in Mzansi is like a minute in space; things can happen pretty quickly. That a respected member of cabinet, exchanging words like that with one of the notorious Shaik brothers puts his own objectivity in question.

Here’s a real question though? Who will take over the Presidency? Officially a member of cabinet would in the absence of both President and his Deputy. However we don’t know who is staying and who is going at this point. Besides, the ANC has indicated that it would appoint someone itself to head up the Union Buildings. President Motlante maybe? And what is that particular man’s agenda anyway? Which brings me to my late suggestion. Since the President was on his last term anyway and would be gone in 6 months time, why remove him now? What is the major haste? If they had instead of forcing him to leave, forced him to reinstate their man Mr Jacob Zuma at his post of DP and let Mrs Mlambo-Ngcuka take the fall, the blow would not have been so severe as it promises to be in the next few weeks and months. We would have gotten used to JZ in power by Election 2009 and would know Mbeki was leaving anyway.

Relieving Mr Mbeki of his duties at such a point will no doubt bring in masses of votes from the millions who back JZ, but what can it do to the confidence of outsiders in our ruling party and by extension, our country? Let's not forget, he still has a large following too.