EX MINISTERS TO FORM A NEW PARTY?

Late last year I had a conversation with a friend. He is one of the directors in government. He was saying that he expects to see a number of cabinet Ministers not returning to their posts after Election 2009. Apparently most of them were not happy with the direction things were taking, leading up to the ANC’s conference in Polokwane. I pictured in my head people like Mr Mosiuoa Lekota, Dr Mantombazane Tshabalala-Msimang and Dr Nkosazana Zuma being on that list. Of course Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka and Dr Essop Pahad as well. What has happened over the weekend is that nine of these folks, and two Deputies tendered in their resignations. There were attempts to talk them out of their actions by Mr Thabo Mbeki and Mr Jacob Zuma, but these were in vain. Interestingly at the press conference where ANC Secretary General Mr Gwede Mantashe made this announcement, to his left was Minister of Transport Mr Jeff Radebe, to his right was former SANDF Chief General Siphiwe Nyanda, next to him Dr Mathole Motshekga the former Premier of Gauteng who took over from Mr Tokyo Sexwale, and to his far right was Mr Billy Masetla, the guy fired from his post as Director General at the Intelligence Ministry. So it seems you get “comrades” and then you get COMRADES…

The only major concern as far as this announcement was the Minister of Finance Mr Trevor Manuel, and that concern was only from people familiar with how the financial markets work. Mr Manuel has been a strong pillar of state and his department is credited with doing sterling work as far financial governance is concerned. The irony of these fears about Mr Manuel leaving cabinet is that when he joined Dr Mandela’s cabinet after Chris Liebenberg, the markets went jittery. Numbers declined and whispers were heard around dark corners about this black activist boy from the Cape with only an engineering degree driving our economy down the drain. Twelve years later the same markets are jittery after hearing of his resignation. Back then Mr Manuel himself had asked “where are these markets”? Markets, contrary to popular belief, are not by any means perfect, and neither are they efficient. Often they make decisions based on incomplete information. For example, the markets fell today on news that Mr Manuel had resigned, when in fact, all these Ministers him included, had resigned last Saturday. That is why Mr Jacob Zuma and Mr Thabo Mbeki had met with them to try and dissuade them from acting out these mass resignations on Sunday.

A few “analysts” today attacked the ANC for being caught napping by these Ministers, saying the ANC was totally unprepared for them. Clearly not. And the markets reacted accordingly. Now there are growing voices claiming a new party is on the way, led by some of these Ministers. I’m afraid they are wasting not only their own time but that of their future voters. You see, starting a party is a simple enough task. You just need money. The Independent Democrats (ID) leader Mrs Patricia

de Lille (why are there so many pictures and stories of her on the ID’s website, instead of ID stuff? Five pictures of her on the home page alone!) left the Pan Africanist Congress.

The UDM’s Mr Bantu Holomisa did it too with the ANC, after joining them from running his former Bantustan, the Transkei. So did Dr Ziba Jiyane from the Inkatha Freedom Party. In fact, Dr Mangosuthu Buthelezi started the Inkatha National Cultural Liberation Movement (which later became the IFP) when he left the ANC Youth League in 1975. Most of our opposition parties have been started by former “dissidents” of other major parties.

The differences here may be that these said folks already had constituencies. They had support on the ground, obviously not enough to topple the ANC…yet, but still enough to get them into Parliament. Mr Zuma clearly has groundswell support. In fact I would venture to say he probably has more support than any other leader in the history of Mzansi, apart from the obvious one. To start a political party, a successful one, you need that kind of backing, from the people on the ground, the branches and other structures. You don’t just announce on TV that you are forming a party and then boom, you win an election. Can we honestly say that any of the Ministers that have resigned from cabinet have this kind of support?

Most of the Ministers have said they are not interested in staying on, even if asked to by the new President Mr Kgalema Motlanthe.

These are the departing Ministers.

Mr Mosiuoa Lekota (Defence)

Sydney Mufumadi (Provincial and Local Government)

Alec Irwin (Public Enterprises)

Thoko Didiza (Public Works)

Ronnie Kasrils (Intelligence)

Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi (Public Service and Administration)

Mosibudi Mangena (Science and Technology)

Ngconde Balfour (Correctional Services)

Essop Pahad (Minister in the Presidency)

Aziz Pahad (Deputy, Foreign Affairs Minister)

Loretta Jacobus (Deputy, Correctional Services)